Just once, I’d like to win in all three phases of the game.
Sound like a coach?
I might actually need a coaching pep talk to get me going on these picks. I pick games straight up, against the spread and then have my best bets each week. It seems every week there is one area where I struggle.
This past week it was with my best bets as part of the Pick Six podcast. I went 2-4, which dropped my overall record to .500 at 17-17. I did go 9-5 with my expert picks and I was just 7-7 with my straight-up picks. That brings my season record ATS to 42-47-4 and 50-43-1 straight up.
It’s time to play a complete game. It’s time to win all three phases, even if straight-up picks are the equivalent of special teams.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
These two are among the biggest disappointments of the season. The Cardinals can’t score, which was expected to be a strong suit of this team. The Saints have defensive issues, which was expected to be a strong point. So what gives? I think the Saints defense will get the best of it, even with DeAndre Hopkins back for the Cardinals.
Pick: Saints 24, Cardinals 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
These two are off to slow starts, but the Ravens have lost three games they led by double-digits in the second half. That won’t happen in this one. Lamar Jackson will have a big game against a Cleveland defense that is bad right now. This won’t be closed.
Pick: Ravens 33, Browns 19
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers are a mess right now and not even sure who the quarterback will be this week. As if it matters. Tampa Bay is coming off a bad loss to the Steelers, which featured a sluggish offensive showing. It will change that here. The Bucs will bounce back from that road loss, even though they are playing consecutive road games.
Pick: Bucks 30, Panthers 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons
This is a big game for these two teams. The Falcons are coming off an impressive home victory over the 49ers to get to 3-3. They are a tough team to defend because of the way they play offense. The Bengals seem to be getting right on offense, which won’t be good for the Falcons. The Bengals explode with their passing game behind Joe Burrow.
Pick: Bengals 33, Falcons 24
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
This is the return of Dak Prescott for the Cowboys at quarterback. It couldn’t happen against a better team. The Lions, who are coming off a bye, have been bad against the pass. Look for Prescott to get the downfield passing game going for the Cowboys, much more so than Cooper Rush.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Lions 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants
The Jaguars are favored over a 5-1 team. That seems weird. But Jacksonville could easily be 4-2 rather than 2-4. The Giants have won by running the ball and playing good defense. The Jaguars have pass-defense issues, which doesn’t play into the Giants attack. Look for Jacksonville to beat the Giants. The oddsmakers have it right.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Giants 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans, who are coming off a bye, beat the Colts three weeks ago. The Colts won a tough division game against the Jaguars last week, but now head off to face a team that powers the football against them with Derrick Henry. The Titans will do that again here to take a big hold on the division.
Pick: Titans 28, Colts 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have lost two straight and have not played good football. They do get a break here in that Carson Wentz is out for Washington. That means Taylor Heinicke is in at quarterback. The Green Bay defense has really struggled against the run, which will help the Commanders. It could mean a big day for Brian Robinson Jr.. But I think the Packers will win a tight one.
Pick: Packers 24, Commanders 23
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
The Jets are playing a second straight road game after upsetting the Packers last week. There has to be a natural letdown. And the Broncos are in dire need of a victory. That’s a bad combination. The defense is playing well for the Broncos, but they can’t score. In this one, I look for the defense to get the best of the Jets. Denver takes it.
Pick: Broncos 21, Jets 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Featured Game | Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texas
This is a game featuring two teams coming off a bye. The Raiders are a surprising 1-4, but they’ve been in a lot of those games. The Texans beat the Jaguars last time out, but they are too limited on offense to stay in this one. Las Vegas takes it.
Pick: Raiders 26, Texans 13
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Chargers have won three straight games, but they haven’t looked great in doing so. The offense just isn’t clicking yet. But the Seattle defense, which did play well last week against Arizona, isn’t that good. This is a game for Justin Herbert to hit some shots down the field. The problem is Seattle can run it and the Chargers can’t stop the run. The Seahawks will hang around.
Pick: Chargers 23, Seahawks 21
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Featured Game | San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This is one of the best games of the week, a repeat of the Super Bowl from a few years ago. But it features two teams coming off a loss. The Chiefs offense against the 49ers defense will be fun to watch. I just don’t think the 49ers will slow them down enough with a lot of injuries on that side of the ball. Look for Patrick Mahomes to get back on track.
Pick: Chiefs 30, 49ers 23
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This will be the return of Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins at quarterback. The Steelers will likely have Mitch Trubisky back starting in place of the injured Kenny Pickett, although there is a chance Pickett can play if he responds in the concussion protocol. The Steelers played good defense last week, while the Dolphins have not been good on that side of the ball this season. Look for the Steelers to keep this one close, but the Dolphins will win it.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Steelers 25
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears are coming off 10 days rest after playing last Thursday, while the Patriots are back home after beating the Browns. New England has made big strides on the defensive side of the ball. That will show up against a bad Bears offense that is limited in the passing game. On offense, Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones, whoever plays, will do enough in the passing game. The Pats will win big.
Pick: Patriots 27, Bears 7
